Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Maharaja Sher Singh: The forgotten Maharaja of Punjab

By Col. Satwant Singh Gill

History has many great leaders who fell through the cracks and never recognized. Maharaj Sher Singh was one of them. He was a leader whose talent was not recognized during his times and not in times after him.

Maharaja Sher Singh was the 2nd son of the great Maharaja Ranjit Singh & his first wife Maharani Mehtab Kaur. Maharani was herself the daughter of Sada Kaur & Gurbaksh Singh of the famous Kanahya Misl with capital at Batala. Ironically the eldest son of Ranjit Singh, Kharak Singh was born to Dataar Kaur  (the 2nd wife) who was daughter of younger sister of Sada Kaur married into the Nakai Misl

Maharaja Sher Singh
Sher Singh had a twin brother Tara Singh, who unlike him was a very simple godly man who did not get involved in the politics of the time. Sher Singh besides being the son of Ranjit Singh and 2nd in line to succession of Khalsa Raj was also the legitimate successor of Kanhaya Misl too, as Sada Kaur did not have any sons and Sher Singh was the son of the eldest daughter. Her husband had been killed long ago fighting Maha Singh (Father of Ranjit Singh). As one could guess these equations made the whole situation a really complex one

Sada Kaur, the capable ruler of Kanhaiya Misl. Mother in law of Ranjit Singh, maternal grandmother of Sher Singh


Sada Kaur was a very acute & capable leader and a visionary in her own right. The way in which she managed the Kanhaiya Misl after turbulent times when Gurbaksh Singh was killed demonstrates all those qualities. Many of those qualities were inherited by Sher Singh over whom Sada Kaur had a deep imprint.

These strong qualities in Sada Kaur always made Maharaja Ranjit singh wary of her for her entire life and never had good relations with her. Rather there was a grudging acceptance due to realistic factors of the day. As Mehtab Kaur (Sher Singh's mother) was close to her mother contributed to distancing between her & Ranjit Singh and in future over his relationship with Sher Singh too.

Mehtab Kaur, eldest queen of Maharaja Ranjit Singh, daughter of Sada Kaur and mother of Maharaja Sher Singh & Kunwar Tara Singh

Sher Singh was an extremely handsome, well built, well mannered prince. His upbringing was in Batala away from Khalsa capital of Lahore & Ranjit Singh and under Sada Kaur.
Baradari of Sher Singh at Batala

As per Britishers, Ranjit Singh believed that Sher Singh was not his son. However this is most likely to be propaganda as they were aware of the strained relationship between Ranjit Singh & Sada Kaur. The British on the other hand were also very impressed with the intellect & sophisticated habits of Sher Singh (& even his son Tikka Pratap Singh). As per them he could easily adapt to the ways of living & diplomacy and was quite popular with them. Infact the culture of tying one's beard was started by Sher Singh himself. Before him the culture in Sikhs was to leave the beard open & flowing. This trend started by him has infact now become a norm but rarely people know he was the creator of the sytle

Hari Singh Nalwa, the famous general of Maharaja Ranjit Singh who extended his boundary much beyond the traditional borders of Punjab

As Sher Singh rose over time he started to prove his mettle. Away from the courts of Lahore, he proved his worth in battles and really impressed the famous general, Hari Singh Nalwa. It was perhaps due to these qualities that he was offered a chair in the Durbar in 1829 despite a strained relationship with Ranjit Singh.

He continued this display of character & further participated in various famous battles including Battle of Balakot (Now known for Air Strikes by India post Pulwama), Haripur & Hazara in 1831 against Sayeed Ahmed Shah Barelvi who had started a Jihad against the Khalsa Raj with masked support of the British (It is due to the same reason of concept of Jihad that Jaish e Mohammad has chosen Balakot as site of their training camp but that is a story for another day). Further Sher Singh was in the thick of action when Hari Singh Nalwa captured Peshawar from the Afghans in 1834 and once for all put the invasions of Afghans to a halt.
Battle of Balakot

It was his extra-ordinary display and recommendation of Hari Singh Nalwa, that obligated Maharaja to make him Governor of Kashmir from 1831 to 1834. He did not let anyone down as he displayed extra-ordinary display of leadership and managed the province with great acumen.

Diplomatically, Sher Singh continued to impress. He was known to have the finest Buggy in Khalsa Raj which was always preferred by the British to travel around during their visits to Khalsa Durbar as mentioned in accounts of various Britishers.

The only Prince who was as capable as Sher Singh during Ranjit Singh's life was Kunwar Nau Nihal Singh son of Kharak Singh (The declared successor of Ranjit Singh who as per many was one of the most incapable leader).
Maharaja Kharak Singh & his capable son Kunwar Nau Nihal Singh
 After death of Maharaja Ranjit Singh, Kharak Singh was declared the successor. Sher Singh during that time stationed himself at Batala. He waited and closely watched the treacheries and intrigues of the Lahore Durbar.

The opportune time came when Kharak Singh passed away and Nau Nihal Singh was murdered. Chand Kaur on behalf of unborn child of Nau Nihal Singh declared herself as the regent. Sher Singh reached with his army at Budhu ka Awwa near Lahore to take over. The Khalsa Raj was now divided with Chand Kaur at one end and Sher Singh at other. Not known to them, the Dogra brothers were playing a master game with Gulab Singh aligning himself with Chand Kaur and Dhian Singh supporting Sher Singh were playing them around and playing both camps against one another. In this grand chess the Sandhwalia brothers were also instigated by Gulab Singh to support Chand Kaur.
Dogra brothers with Maharaja Ranjit Singh

A temporary truce was agreed. However it quickly fell through and finally Sher Singh managed to capture Lahore and declare himself as Maharaja. Chand Kaur was put under house arrest and the Sandhawalia brothers crossed Sutlej and went under British protection staying in Calcutta for two years. It can also be induced that when Chand Kaur was killed by Dogra brothers, they had tactic approval of Sher Singh.
Ajit Singh Sandhawalia

Sher Singh ruled capably during the short rule. He wanted to get over the fissures and re-integrate all stakeholders. In the process he forgave the Sandhawalia Sardars Ajit Singh & his uncle Lehna Singh. However they seeing this as a right oppurtunity planned to eradicate Sher Singh and the willy Dogras.

They got their chance on 15th September, 1843. Sher Singh after watching a wrestling match at Shah Behlol, went to a raised platform to review a parade. He called Ajit Singh near him to show him the new gun which had been recently purchased from the British. Ajit Singh used this opportunity to get near Sher Singh and shot him. He then chopped his head and put it on a spear and started to move towards Lahore fort. Meanwhile Lehna Singh killed Kunwar Tikka Pratap Singh, the son of Sher Singh and joined Ajit Singh. This was the end of the rule of a capable but unfortunate king of Khalsa Raj. Who knows if he could have been more shrewd like his grandmother Sada Kaur, he could have passed over this phase.

When the British finally annexed Punjab, they only recognized Sher Singh's rule as the last legitimate rule and all properties acquired after his rule were confiscated.

In hindsight Sher Singh was a talented capable leader. He however failed to understand the conspiracies and instead of being careful, started to trust people too soon. This resulted in a tragic end.

He & his son's samadhis are located at Shah Behlol (Where he was killed). Shah Behlol, was ironically the place from where his father (Maharaja Ranjit Singh) & his grandmother (Sada Kaur) with their forces had launched an attack to capture Lahore from the Bhangi Sardars (Gujar & Jhanda Singh) in 1779 to start the Khalsa Raj. Sadly it became the spot where it also practically ended (Although Britishers finally captured it after Anglo Sikh wars in 1846 & 1848).

Maharaja Sher Singh

History has many what if moments (Like if Dara Shikoh has succeeded instead of Aurangzeb). What if instead of incapable Kharak Singh, Sher Singh was recognized as legal successor. He was capable, intelligent, sophisticated & intellectual. However History is not "what ifs". It is what has happened and what we can do is learn from it. Instead of blindly declaring Maharaja Ranjit Singh as great and blaming failures on others (especially the Dogras), we should develop appetite to critically examine certain things that Maharaja Ranjit Singh should have done better in his later half of rule especially building a robust line of succession. The failure of the same lead to the crash in Khalsa Raj after he passed away. Part of the blame surely lies within. We should perhaps learn and implement these leanings in the present times too- the fault of failure is both external & internal. The challenge is to recognize internal shortcoming by not being narcissistic about it. 

Thursday, April 11, 2019

Indian Elections 2019

It's 2019 and the much awaited elections are back. For the ruling party supporters, they are in hope and almost certainly believe that the government is coming back. They hope the agenda started by the government will be completed in the next 5 years. Many are doubly sure, that the government will again get a majority. They believe that the charm of Mr Modi will take it to their side. They believe in a presidential style competition between Mr Modi vs other or Pappu or Mahamilavat depending on where you belong to.

For the opposition supporters, they hope that the government will be dislodged as they believe this government is bad for country. It is destroying the institutions. They are hoping though less sure that the government will be dislodged.

But which way will the election go. It's surely very difficult to predict. The country is divided and biased views are presented. I due to my job get to travel across various parts of the country which includes both urban and rural areas. As many Indians I am interested in politics. Hence besides work, I also try to get the political mood of the area. While I am no expert I surely will try to build in an unbiased analysis on which way the elections will swing.

To start with, we must look at India by dividing into many regions and further states. The regions and states behave very differently and hence only a national view would not be fair. The regions are divided based on the language, culture and type of political structure (Bipolar or Multipolar, National vs Regional parties etc)

The Minority North
We start from the north of the country. There are two states where our Majority is in minority in these states, hence the dynamics are quite different. However these states are not aloof and surely there are some regions where the Modi wave impacted like Jammu region of J&K

J&K
Last time it was a even split of 3 each between BJP & PDP. However it will not be so straight forward. PDP faces massive anger and anti incumbency in valley along with likelihood of boycott by many sections. PDP which draws it's support from more orthodox and boycott crowd is likely to lose from this and NC will gain
In Leh where BJP had won will find it very difficult. The MP had quit the party and overall it's in a weak state. Here too NC is likely to gain
In Jammu region, NC & INC have an alliance. However BJP is still very strong here and the alliance in the end may not be successful.

Punjab
Vidhan Sabha election was a triangular fight between INC, AAP & SAD-BJP. INC edged out both these parties comfortably. Much has changed in state in favour of INC. AAP has split and dodged by infighting. SAD has not been able to overcome the "Beadbi" of Guru Granth Sahib and it's Majha division has split in SAD (Taksali) all to advantage of INC

Overall
It surely is gain for INC in this region
The Hindi Hills
The two hill states are known to give clean sweeps. In 2009 it was INC and 2014, it was BJP. BJP repeated the feat in the state elections. Not much has changed in these states to have any major changes, except for perhaps senior BJP leader Gen Khanduri's son joining INC. Overall a clean sweep of BJP is expected with INC slipping one odd seat

BJP holds it fort
Trans Yamuna Hindi Heartland
Not to confuse people, these are states of Haryana, Rajasthan, National Capital Delhi and UT of Chandigarh. Most had been bipolar except Haryana, but with coming of AAP have turned into multi cornered elections except Rajasthan where it is still Bipolar

Rajasthan
The biggest prize here are the 25 seats of Rajasthan where BJP had a clean sweep last time. However in Vidhan Sabha, it was trumped by INC, which though of anti incumbency just managed to cross the half way mark. However the scenario will be different in Lok Sabha, where Mr Modi would be still popular and advantage will be with BJP but not with clean sweep like last time

Haryana
In Haryana BJP continues to be comfortable. INC is marred by infighting, INLD has split between 2 Chautalas and JJP being formed splitting the Jaat vote and AAP not so strong. If an AAP-JJP-INC alliance is formed, BJP has plan B to tie up with INLD. So surely the state is with BJP

Delhi
With AAP-INC alliance almost ruled out, will favour BJP. However AAP also is in a much better position than 2014 and will give a tough fight to BJP. INC surely will be a washout here

Chandigarh
Sole seat of Chandigarh has strong INC candidate of Pawan Bansal while Kiron Kher didn't do much and will not get the ticket. AAP is quite weak and will not make much impact like last time. In a tight race, advantage is with INC here

Overall
BJP remains the power house but will lose seats
The Ganga Hindi Heartland
This is the core of the country contributing to the most seats. The region is divided into castes and jatis with powerful ties. On top of that we have powerful set of alliances taking on each other. Here the BJP had swept last time. It is still dominant here but will surely drop seats

Uttar Pradesh
With SP & BSP tying up on paper is a very big threat to BJP. However the votes are not likely to be mutually transferable. The Yadavs of SP and Jatavs and other SCs are not known to like each other and would rather vote for BJP & INC respectively. Similarly on other side, dropping INC may actually be better for SP-BSP. The upper caste vote would have gone to BJP rather than SP-BSP if there was an alliance. Now it will remain with INC just impacting BJP. The state is all set for a cut throat competition where Mr Modi surely has a great personal appeal but opposition has got it's arithmetic right

Bihar
2 Maha Gathbandans are fighting it out. Each of them are fighting cut throat for each caste, each vote. The state has swung many ways. Mr Modi is popular, Nitish has good image, Paswan has a secure vote base. On other hand Lalu has a secure vote base but is marred by his son's fighting, INC is not getting its favourite seats and Kushwaha who is of same caste as Nitish is no match to him. In the end advantage is with BJP but still opposition cannot be discounted

Overall
BJP dominates but huge loss as clean sweep will not repeated due to alliances. INC remains minor player
Heart of India
These are two states which BJP lost of INC recently. These states are mostly Bipolar with other players only playing role of a destroyer and cutter of votes. Mr Modi has a great personal appeal in these states

Madhya Pradesh
Even though INC won the state elections, but the advantage is surely with BJP because of personal appeal of Mr Modi. In State elections BJP polled more seats than INC but due to concentration of votes lost in terms of seats. If state elections are super imposed, BJP will win 16 seats.

Chhattisgarh
BJP was routed in this state in state elections. The tribals are clearly not happy with the party. Also INC did everything correct in this state. INC will take majority of seats. However since it is national elections definitely BJP will perform much better than state elections

Overall
BJP dominates but will lose seats vs 2014
East Central
This is the region where BJP has spent disproportionate share of it's energy as it feels, it will offset the minor losses it faces in other places. The INC as a major opposition is virtually become a very minor player with BJP taking it's place. However, except for Jharkhand, the regional satraps still continue to dominate and push back BJP here. Here the predictions can go off the track for most, as there are many unknowns

West Bengal
The TMC & BJP are having a fight like cats & dogs with a very toxic campaign on both sides. This has pushed INC & CPM out of mind share but in the process we tend to underestimate their pockets of strength. The BJP like Tripura surely has the ability to surprise and gain a lot of seats here. Will be the state where I will have my eye

Orrisa
The tribal heavy state is dominated by BJD who hopes to repeat the magic again as we have the state elections also going simultaneously. BJP came in very powerfully at 3rd in terms of votes and 2nd in terms of seats. It has improved on that in local elections. Whatever be the case, BJP will have more seats than last time

Jharkhand
This state always has a fractured mandate except last time. This time it will surely return back to it's normal course. The tribals may not back BJP with the strength like they did last time

Overall
Paradoxical region where BJP gains but doesn't dominate
North East
It's a very different region from rest of country. It is highly diverse in terms of states, tribes, insider outsider, religion etc. The tendency has been to be with the national dominant party. BJP has made massive strides in this region but lately due to the citizenship bill lost a large amount of support too. INC has it's pockets of strength but is losing it's grip

Assam
Contributing to more than half the seats, Assam holds the key for North East. BJP managed to dislocate INC both in state & national elections, still has the momentum but will not be able to repeat the performance. INC will try hard to regain the lost ground but will be minorly successful

Other Sisters
I am not ignoring these states like most mainland Indians. Only trying to club them here else this section will drag
Arunachal where BJP took 1 seat last time and then in a mid night coup ensured a defection of all MLAs except the Chief Minister!!! will continue to dominate.
Nagaland has a unique situation where NPF if supporting INC. However the core of NPF has formed NDPP which is supported by BJP and will surely win the election
Manipur will go 1-1 between national parties. BJP having NDPP support and ensuring Kukis are also on its side will take the hills, while INC may dominate the valley
Mizoram will be a easy win for MNF like state elections & so will be the case in Tripura where BJP will repeat it's performance
Meghalaya will return to old guard with INC & NPP likely to be the in the race with advantage with INC. Sikkim will continue to be dominated by SDF

Overall
Despite losing some seats in Assam, BJP will gain from this region

Industrial West
This is the commercial heart of India and highly urban area is the source of strength of the BJP. The RSS is based out of Nagpur and Mr Modi is from Gujarat. BJP has managed to rule this region and the grip doesn't seem to loosen

Mahrasthra
This is the second biggest state in terms of seats. Last elections BJP along with Shiv Sena (SS) led a complete dominance taking 42 out of 48 seats. It then formed the state government for the first time. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnadvis has managed to do a decent job and been able to make his personal standing. He along with Mr Gadkari both have ensured that the pace of development picks up in Vidharbha and especially Nagpur. The talks of drought are no longer heard in news. The same is true for Marathwada region where the Jalyukt Shivar Yojana has really addressed the watershed problem.
However rural distress in many regions and bickering with Shiv Sena have been dampeners. INC & NC have tried to gather strength, however the previous image of huge corruptions seems to be a huge impediment. On top of that JVA & MIM have made an alliance and standing in all the seats. They will cut the votes of INC & NC and help BJP-SS alliance only

Gujarat
This is the hub of Mr Modi. In state elections at one point it looked like INC will take the state, but better organization skills of BJP along with comments of some INC leader turned the tide and BJP scraped through. However in national elections, the tide surely will be more towards BJP but a clean sweep like last time will not happen. Many local leaders like Mevani, Alpesh Thakor & Hardik Patel also have started to play a role

Goa
This is a state of family bastions who are guided more by interests rather than ideology. Hence BJP managed to form the government even though INC had more seats. However with death of My Parikar things might change for the party and it will be a tough competition

Overall
BJP here also remains dominant but will lose seats vs 2014
Dravidian South
In our mind share filled with Hindi Belt or West, the media, working professionals and Hindi belt always tends to ignore this region. Even during Modi Wave, this region behaved quite differently. Every state has some regional players who play a very important role. On top of everything, this region contributes to a significant number of seats

Tamil Nadu
The biggest state of this region will first time go into polls without 2 stalwarts- Karunanidhi & J Jayalalitha. On top of that, ruling party had some internal differences and Sasikala who was supposed to take over reins of AIADMK was convicted and is in Jail. Stalin also faced some resistance from Alagiri but has been able to overcome.
BJP, ADMK and smaller parties have formed a alliance on one side, while DMK and INC have been able to ink a pact. This converts the competition into a 2 sided contest. Stalin with a cleaner and stable image will surely have an advantage

Kerala
BJP trying hard to make some inroads has developed some pocket of strengths. However at present it will be tough for it to convert that into seats. The UDF & LDF will seems to fight out between each other with LDF having performed better in recent local body elections.

Karnataka
What BJP did to INC in Goa, Manipur & Meghalaya, INC did to it in Karnataka. When no party got a majority, it supported JD(S) with Kumaraswamy as its leader. BJP has been trying hard to scramble back but at present has not had much luck. On top of that INC & JDS have sealed pact for Lok Sabha
However INC & JDS did not have a easy relationship and has lost some support. On top of that JDS draws its support in South Kar while BJP in North, hence the alliance may be of limited use. However like at many places, BJP will not be able to match 2014

Telangana
TRS has being all things correctly politically. It has manged to stay away from both BJP & INC tactically supporting Center to ensure the funds keep flowing. On top of that it has launched some schemes for poor and farmers which has helped it to comeback even more strongly in an earlier called elections. TDP has decided not to contest, while INC & BJP are on no match

Andhra Pradesh
AP faces tough competition between YSRC & TDP. Like in case of TDP power in whole of AP where it did a phenomenal job is Hyderabad but lost in rural hinterland, the same has been the case in new AP with more focus on Amravati. On top of the coffers have been dry and special status not coming has made things even more tough. All the advantage of this will be taken by YSRC. INC & BJP without alliance with TDP will really struggle in this state

Overall
ADMK, TDP come out as biggest losers, while DMK & YSRC as major gainers. National Parties are minor players

National Picture
This brings us to national picture on how the Lok Sabha will look like and who will form the next government


BJP will come out as the largest party but will lose over 90 seats vs last time. INC will gain roughly 55 of those seats. However this will result in a hung assembly

BJP will be near to the majority but leaves us with several possibilities
1. Swing in favour of NDA and as a coalition actually gets 272+ seats
2. BJP gathers support with Mr Modi as PM
3. BJP gathers support with Mr Gadkari as PM being the condition
4. UPA cobbles together the support
5. Third Front with either INC or BJP supporting it

My guess will be number two option with support coming as follows
NDA(237)+YSR(18)+TRS(13)+TDP(7, on promise of Special Status for AP)+JJP(1) and maybe tactical support from BJP.

Let's see how much of predictions actually fall through

Sunday, February 17, 2019

How Kashmir movement is losing it

India just witnessed it's worst terrorist attack where 42 soldiers were martyred in a suicide bombing. While this has filled whole country with anger, many in valley are celebrating this as a step towards victory.

On the contrary I believe the people of valley have started to lose the narrative. Normally when a region wants additional autonomy or more, there are many ways to do it. One is to gain the sympathy of the major powers which then force them to push the host country to offer concessions. This really accelerates if you have valuable resource or strategic location. This happened with South Sudan which was oil rich and Sudan was anti America.

Second way is to scale up the stakes so much which then forces the host to offer concessions. However in this case usually the area asking for additional rights needs to be of significant size as compared to host. Bangladesh was one such example. Components in Yugoslavia was also similar case.

Third way is when the economy of the host country decays so much that it by itself let's go off the steam

Finally the most sustainable is way is to moral upmanship on people of host country. This is challenging but is a very sustainable way of moving forward. Colonialism, Apartheid movt, East Timor as went this way.

Kashmir at this moment presently has nothing. It has taken path of religious terrorism a worst path to choose rather than ethnic militancy which will never have global sympathy. It's separatist leaders are also religious leaders (Geelani is Jamait Islami, Mirwaiz is a cleric. Only Yaseen Malik belongs to JKLF but has chosen wrong partners). This has lead to even street movements showing Paki or ISIS flags to tease normal Indians. Rather than doing so on the contrary, it reduces sympathy for them.

Now trying to up the game will only bring back more violence which rest of the country will be ok to have. The economy of India will not be majorly affected nor does valley have that size to raise the cost.

This blip of violence will pass. As time moves rest of the country will grow economically while valley lags behind even though due to tourism they could be one of the richest. Then the generation of the time will itself fight the extremists to bring back peace and economic development

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Tum Bilkul Hum Jaise Nikale

A beautiful poem by Fahmida Riaz, a progressive Pakistani poet on the current situation in India. It was a must share


“Tum bilkul hum jaise nikle
tum bilkul hum jaisey nikley
ab tak kahaN chhupe the bhai
voh moorkhta, voh ghaamarpan
jis mein hum ne sadi ganwai
aakhir pahunchi dwaar tumhaarey
arre badhai bohot badhai


preyt dharam ka naach rahaa hai
qayam Hindu raaj karoge?
saarey ultey kaaj karogay
apna chaman daraaj karogey
tum bhee baithey karogey sochaa
poori hai waisi tayyari
kaun hai Hindu, kaun naheeN hai
tum bhi karogay fatwe jaari
hoga kathin yahaN bhi jeena
raatoN aa jayega paseena
jaisi taisi kata karegi
yahan bhi sabki saans ghutegi
kal dukh se socha karti thi
soch ke bohot hansi aaj aee,
tum bilkul hum jaise nikle
Hum do qaum nahin the bhai!


bhaar mein jaaye shiksha viksha
ab jaahilpan ke gun gaana.
aage gadha hai yeh mat dekho
wapas laao gaya zamana
bhasht karo tum aajayega
ulte paaon chalte jaana
dhyaan na mann mein dooja aaye
bas peeche hi nazar jamana
ek jaap saa kartey jao
vaaram vaar yahi dohrao
kitna veer mahaan tha Bharat
kaisa alishaan tha bharat
phir tum log pohonch jaogay
bas parlok pohonch jaaogay
hum toh hain pehle se wahan par
tum bhi samay nikalte rehna
ab jis nark mein jaao wahan se
chitthi vitthi daalte rehna"




Saturday, November 3, 2018

Is Ayodhya Mandir Justified?

6 Dec on my 9th Birthday, there was a Masjid in India that was being demolished. It led to series of riots. It also led to many Mandirs being demolished in our Islamic neighborhood. The year was 1992.

The case is now in now in courts and everytime near the elections the issue always makes a comeback. It is fierselly debated but not much has moved. It surely makes everyone wonder if we will ever have a closure on the issue.

Going into the background, it is alleged that there was a temple in Ayodhya, the birth place of Shri Ram. Then in 1526 the Central Asian Turk Babar invaded India. After failed to defend or establish his rule in central Asia, he tried his luck in India and replaced the Afghan rulers. He never liked India as written in Baburnama where he called it a hot place of Dark ugly people. To show his stamp of rule more due to political reasons he is alleged to have built a Mosque over the sacred place of Mandir. This is the issue.

To start with, critics allege that Ramayana is a mythological story. Then there is a point that there surely was a Masjid that everyone has seen but no Mandir. And there are such many more arguments.

As per my personal opinion, yes Ramayana cannot be taken as a historical document, but it surely represented the essence of India. Centuries of compilations show that contributors were aware of the north south axis of India. The locations in the scripture bear a strong imprint of the geography. In my personal opinion there was a prince in Ayodhya who had a major kingdom (Not over whole of India) and must have been very popular. From his story must have been a starting point of Ramayana.

Overall whatever be the case, Hindus all over India, Nepal and the world have always known what Ayodhya is. It leaves to any doubts that whatever be the history, the location is sacred to Hindu's.

Also the location bears no historical importance to Muslims. However how it is important to Islamists (I am intentionally using Muslim and Islamists differently). As they used it for demanding Pakistan, how they oppose Uniform Civil Code, triple talaq etc, Ayodhya represents notional Islamic domination over India. It represents the feeling we have a Mosque over Ayodhya, while you cannot enter Mecca.

If a Mandir comes up there, people who could not accept democratic rule calling it Hindu rule and then collaborated with British to form Pakistan, see it as a major loss.

Hence while it might be religious for majority, for me Ram Mandir will represent a victory against one of the most regressive mindset of the world and will bring closure to a major issue which forces Hindu's to feel lesser in their majority country.

While I am a secular person, dead against RSS and Stupsanghi supporters, this issue rings a bell in me. It reminds me how I feel at sight of Harmandir Sahib (Not Golden Temple) being shattered by this Hinduist rule of 1984. Let's hope for a rightful closure at the earliest.

Saturday, October 27, 2018

Attack on CBI - One more institution

In an early morning coup like attack, the Modi govt attacked the premium investigating agency. Though this is not the first institution that this govt sought to undermine, nor was it surprising, but the effects of it will be long lasting

The CBI director is chosen by a collegium of PM, CJI of Supreme Court and Leader of opposition. He or she has a fixed tenure of 2 years and can be removed by the same collegium. The government tried to bend the rules by sending him on leave on flimsy grounds. If the government is successful, it will have created a path to threaten and intimidate the future director and can easily use CBI as a political tool (Although even now CBI is somewhat used, but in future that discreteness will all be gone)

This is not the first institution government has undermined. Supreme Court is alleged to be soft on Amit Shah via previous CJ. It is alleged to send his case to favourable judges. This along with pressure helped him escape from many cases. When government has taken oath, it did not appoint CVC and CIC. If CIC and other Information Commissioner are not there, it leads to lag in RTI appeals and government can avoid the transparency. It further tried to tone down power of CIC but due to severe opposition, has at present put it on hold.

Similarly, if CVC i.e. the Vigilance Commissioner is not there, then it will affect the probe of corruption. If there is not probe, then all the charges can simply be knocked off

Another notable action is not to appoint anyone in statistical organisation wherein you stop information like employment figure, growth rate of unorganized sector etc. Without such information, you can easily use propaganda to claim that mudra is creating jobs, more pf accounts that can never be accurate reflection.

The list can go on and on. People many times ask me if not Modi then whom. To such Stupsanghis, any answer can never satisfy them. To those who have logic over emotions, I will say a great nation is formed due to its great institutions which are transparent, accountable and work within their defined jobs. A myopia of a strong leader who undermines institutions, is infact strong to safeguard his power and cause permanent damage which people realize after damage has been done

We need to oppose the move. I hope SC saves this institution but we have to remember if this is way this government will keep going, 2019 may be our last chance for course correction. May the right in us help us.

Monday, December 16, 2013

The Great Game of Baluchistan

In the remotest corner of Pakistan there is a conflict going on, a conflict where people are fighting for their Independence, a conflict which has involved Asian powers like China and India, a conflict which may soon involve the World Power of USA, a conflict which can fit into many of the global power games, this region which in history was a empty corner will now become the center of the great game, this area is the region of Baluchistan located in the western part of Pakistan, Southern Afghanistan and South Eastern Iran.

Baluchistan and it's strategic location. It is spread around 3 countries presently

The history of this region is as old as this region. The first proof of wheat being grown was found in Mehrgarh located in Baluchistan. The Baluch like the Pashtun have been fiercely independent people. The British realizing this fact did not try to capture the area but rather ruled them through the Khan of Kalat and various Sardars just directly ruling a area between Baluchistan and Afghanistan cutting the latter's access to sea. Even before the British in the power struggle between Indian, Persian and then later Afghan rulers this area was a buffer between various kingdom of these areas. This area which is one of the most barren regions did not have the return of investment to capture and every kingdom was happy to keep it as their buffer.

However things changed when the British left India. The rulers of Baluchistan site historical references to prove that they were recognized as de jure independent by the British like Nepal. In the confusing times that were prevalent the Pakistani's finally captured Baluchistan in 1948. Pakistan was always skeptic of India and the Kashmir conflict immediately after Independence created a narrative in Pakistan that they are a thin strip of plain land which needs Baluchistan and Afghanistan as it's strategic depth in times of a attach from it's eastern neighbour. The discovery of various minerals, oil and gas has made this land even more valuable for it.

Due to these reasons Baluchistan is too valuable for Pakistan. It will try to keep it at any cost. It has been suppressing the freedom movements in Baluchistan very violently. There is virtually a martial rule in this state. Pakistan has also kept Baluchistan province with a lot of Pashtun population areas. It serves twin objectives. Firstly it has ensured that the Baluch are a minority in it's own province. Secondly it also ensures that the Pashtun in Pakistan are divided between the province of Khyber Pakthunwa, Baluchistan and FATA. This also helps it to address the Pashtunistan movement that may emerge in it's other eastern province.The province is now also critical for Pakistan as it's second deep sea port has been built at Gwadar, which relieves it from a situation it faced in previous wars where it's only port of Karachi was blocked by Indian Navy. Hence in this great game whatever be the aspirations of the people of Baluchistan, Pakistan will never let it go and use it's last of resources. Losing this state might be the end of this nation and it knows that.

The Chinese have also made huge investments in this province. The Chinese are hungry for minerals due to the huge demand back at home. Also China wants to secure it's oil supply routes and Gwadar forms a key port in its string of pearls which it is creating in Indian Ocean to secure it's routes. It has made huge investments in Gwadar. Also Chinese are also creating a Road, Rail line and a Pipeline through Pakistan linking Western China. These all lines meet the warm water of Indian ocean at Gwadar. As already stated Pakistan losing Baluchistan might mean the end of Pakistan and which is the last thing China wants. Pakistan is virtually a military and transit country for them and would preserve it at any cost. Hence an Independent Baluchistan will be as seriously defended by China as it would defend North Korea

The third big player in this game is India. India has it's eye of vast oil resources in Central Asia, Afghanistan. It also wants to trade with these countries. Till now it's access has been blocked by Pakistan. It does not trust Pakistan and hence cancelled it's share from the Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline. Also India would ultimately like Pakistan to be broken into 4 to 6 countries. This will ensure that all the threats from the neighbourhood are removed and then can focus it's energies on development and tackling China a large part of it which now it has to divert on defense and terrorism. It is also playing limited role in supporting the Baluch insurgency from it's consulates in Afghanistan. A free Baluchistan will help India in addressing both it's enemy neighbours of Pakistan and China. It will give a serious dent to Chinese plans using Pakistan and again would have to depend on routes from Indian Ocean which India can tackle if it requires.

USA is a new entrant in this great game. It has just started to enter into it and it's role is presently like a jelly which will take its shape as the time passes and certain confusions are cleared out. USA wants to stay in Afghanistan via it's bases for a long term. It has its eye on the vast resources in Central Asia and would like to challenge the dependency of these nations of Russia. It also wants to stop the access of Russia to the warm waters. However to fulfill this aim it has to depend on a unstable Pakistan, a country where the hate of for USA is growing day by day. For maintaining access to Afghanistan the only choice present for USA is through Afghanistan with other routes either too costly or are closed for it. A free Baluchistan will give direct access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Sitting in Baluchistan it can also put pressure on Iran and take decisive action if required. It also gives it a chance to create Baluch Insurgency in the Iranian Baluch area and create instability in Iran. However USA cannot directly go for proclaiming an Independent Baluchistan. It needs Pakistan to counter upcoming countries of India and China too. USA is playing a murky game where presently the Baluchistan card will be used to counter Pakistan and put it in line. However going by the conditions in this unstable country it will be no surprise that USA might dump it if it finds the right condition and create an Independent Baluchistan

Iran would be another country which would oppose Baluchistan. It's Baluch area are located strategically over the strait of Hormuz, and over Indian Ocean the route from where trade of Suez Canal passes. This is of immense strategic interest which it will not lose at any cost. It has been encouraging India to build the Chah Bahar port in it's Baluch area hoping that this would help it get the trade of Afghanistan and Central Asia and create some development in it's least developed region which will help it quell the insurgency going on there.

Afghanistan would overall want an Independent Baluchistan. A much more ideal situation for them would be to merge this country in "Greater Pashtunistan" no longer making it landlocked. Many Pashtun take Baluch as Pashtuns only but it is too much wishful thinking by them. Overall Afghanistan wants to remove it's dependency on Pakistan and this would be the way. However they might not be happy to lose some areas to Baluchistan even if these are one of the most barren areas.

Central Asia presently is very neutral to this. If it helps to create peace in Afghanistan and open the land routes they would be more than willing to support it. However most of these countries are in so state presently to dictate any terms and would be mere spectators.

Baluchistan if free would make one of the most sort after country which can change the fortune of it's people and turn it into another Saudi Arabia. It would be a country which would be very rich in Oil, Gas and Minerals having a very small population. It would be a country sitting on the 2 biggest trade route and with Asia becoming the future it could become the heart of it. It is a country which formed can turn out to create all right conditions for some countries and misery for some other.

It is hence to no surprise that the "Great Game of Baluchistan" has begun and it will be very intensely fought. Which way it tilts will decide which way the power of the world tilts.