Indian Elections 2019

It's 2019 and the much awaited elections are back. For the ruling party supporters, they are in hope and almost certainly believe that the government is coming back. They hope the agenda started by the government will be completed in the next 5 years. Many are doubly sure, that the government will again get a majority. They believe that the charm of Mr Modi will take it to their side. They believe in a presidential style competition between Mr Modi vs other or Pappu or Mahamilavat depending on where you belong to.

For the opposition supporters, they hope that the government will be dislodged as they believe this government is bad for country. It is destroying the institutions. They are hoping though less sure that the government will be dislodged.

But which way will the election go. It's surely very difficult to predict. The country is divided and biased views are presented. I due to my job get to travel across various parts of the country which includes both urban and rural areas. As many Indians I am interested in politics. Hence besides work, I also try to get the political mood of the area. While I am no expert I surely will try to build in an unbiased analysis on which way the elections will swing.

To start with, we must look at India by dividing into many regions and further states. The regions and states behave very differently and hence only a national view would not be fair. The regions are divided based on the language, culture and type of political structure (Bipolar or Multipolar, National vs Regional parties etc)

The Minority North
We start from the north of the country. There are two states where our Majority is in minority in these states, hence the dynamics are quite different. However these states are not aloof and surely there are some regions where the Modi wave impacted like Jammu region of J&K

J&K
Last time it was a even split of 3 each between BJP & PDP. However it will not be so straight forward. PDP faces massive anger and anti incumbency in valley along with likelihood of boycott by many sections. PDP which draws it's support from more orthodox and boycott crowd is likely to lose from this and NC will gain
In Leh where BJP had won will find it very difficult. The MP had quit the party and overall it's in a weak state. Here too NC is likely to gain
In Jammu region, NC & INC have an alliance. However BJP is still very strong here and the alliance in the end may not be successful.

Punjab
Vidhan Sabha election was a triangular fight between INC, AAP & SAD-BJP. INC edged out both these parties comfortably. Much has changed in state in favour of INC. AAP has split and dodged by infighting. SAD has not been able to overcome the "Beadbi" of Guru Granth Sahib and it's Majha division has split in SAD (Taksali) all to advantage of INC

Overall

It surely is gain for INC in this region

The Hindi Hills
The two hill states are known to give clean sweeps. In 2009 it was INC and 2014, it was BJP. BJP repeated the feat in the state elections. Not much has changed in these states to have any major changes, except for perhaps senior BJP leader Gen Khanduri's son joining INC. Overall a clean sweep of BJP is expected with INC slipping one odd seat

BJP holds it fort

Trans Yamuna Hindi Heartland
Not to confuse people, these are states of Haryana, Rajasthan, National Capital Delhi and UT of Chandigarh. Most had been bipolar except Haryana, but with coming of AAP have turned into multi cornered elections except Rajasthan where it is still Bipolar

Rajasthan
The biggest prize here are the 25 seats of Rajasthan where BJP had a clean sweep last time. However in Vidhan Sabha, it was trumped by INC, which though of anti incumbency just managed to cross the half way mark. However the scenario will be different in Lok Sabha, where Mr Modi would be still popular and advantage will be with BJP but not with clean sweep like last time

Haryana
In Haryana BJP continues to be comfortable. INC is marred by infighting, INLD has split between 2 Chautalas and JJP being formed splitting the Jaat vote and AAP not so strong. If an AAP-JJP-INC alliance is formed, BJP has plan B to tie up with INLD. So surely the state is with BJP

Delhi
With AAP-INC alliance almost ruled out, will favour BJP. However AAP also is in a much better position than 2014 and will give a tough fight to BJP. INC surely will be a washout here

Chandigarh
Sole seat of Chandigarh has strong INC candidate of Pawan Bansal while Kiron Kher didn't do much and will not get the ticket. AAP is quite weak and will not make much impact like last time. In a tight race, advantage is with INC here

Overall

BJP remains the power house but will lose seats

The Ganga Hindi Heartland
This is the core of the country contributing to the most seats. The region is divided into castes and jatis with powerful ties. On top of that we have powerful set of alliances taking on each other. Here the BJP had swept last time. It is still dominant here but will surely drop seats

Uttar Pradesh
With SP & BSP tying up on paper is a very big threat to BJP. However the votes are not likely to be mutually transferable. The Yadavs of SP and Jatavs and other SCs are not known to like each other and would rather vote for BJP & INC respectively. Similarly on other side, dropping INC may actually be better for SP-BSP. The upper caste vote would have gone to BJP rather than SP-BSP if there was an alliance. Now it will remain with INC just impacting BJP. The state is all set for a cut throat competition where Mr Modi surely has a great personal appeal but opposition has got it's arithmetic right

Bihar
2 Maha Gathbandans are fighting it out. Each of them are fighting cut throat for each caste, each vote. The state has swung many ways. Mr Modi is popular, Nitish has good image, Paswan has a secure vote base. On other hand Lalu has a secure vote base but is marred by his son's fighting, INC is not getting its favourite seats and Kushwaha who is of same caste as Nitish is no match to him. In the end advantage is with BJP but still opposition cannot be discounted

Overall

BJP dominates but huge loss as clean sweep will not repeated due to alliances. INC remains minor player

Heart of India
These are two states which BJP lost of INC recently. These states are mostly Bipolar with other players only playing role of a destroyer and cutter of votes. Mr Modi has a great personal appeal in these states

Madhya Pradesh
Even though INC won the state elections, but the advantage is surely with BJP because of personal appeal of Mr Modi. In State elections BJP polled more seats than INC but due to concentration of votes lost in terms of seats. If state elections are super imposed, BJP will win 16 seats.

Chhattisgarh
BJP was routed in this state in state elections. The tribals are clearly not happy with the party. Also INC did everything correct in this state. INC will take majority of seats. However since it is national elections definitely BJP will perform much better than state elections

Overall

BJP dominates but will lose seats vs 2014

East Central
This is the region where BJP has spent disproportionate share of it's energy as it feels, it will offset the minor losses it faces in other places. The INC as a major opposition is virtually become a very minor player with BJP taking it's place. However, except for Jharkhand, the regional satraps still continue to dominate and push back BJP here. Here the predictions can go off the track for most, as there are many unknowns

West Bengal
The TMC & BJP are having a fight like cats & dogs with a very toxic campaign on both sides. This has pushed INC & CPM out of mind share but in the process we tend to underestimate their pockets of strength. The BJP like Tripura surely has the ability to surprise and gain a lot of seats here. Will be the state where I will have my eye

Orrisa
The tribal heavy state is dominated by BJD who hopes to repeat the magic again as we have the state elections also going simultaneously. BJP came in very powerfully at 3rd in terms of votes and 2nd in terms of seats. It has improved on that in local elections. Whatever be the case, BJP will have more seats than last time

Jharkhand
This state always has a fractured mandate except last time. This time it will surely return back to it's normal course. The tribals may not back BJP with the strength like they did last time

Overall

Paradoxical region where BJP gains but doesn't dominate

North East
It's a very different region from rest of country. It is highly diverse in terms of states, tribes, insider outsider, religion etc. The tendency has been to be with the national dominant party. BJP has made massive strides in this region but lately due to the citizenship bill lost a large amount of support too. INC has it's pockets of strength but is losing it's grip

Assam
Contributing to more than half the seats, Assam holds the key for North East. BJP managed to dislocate INC both in state & national elections, still has the momentum but will not be able to repeat the performance. INC will try hard to regain the lost ground but will be minorly successful

Other Sisters
I am not ignoring these states like most mainland Indians. Only trying to club them here else this section will drag
Arunachal where BJP took 1 seat last time and then in a mid night coup ensured a defection of all MLAs except the Chief Minister!!! will continue to dominate.
Nagaland has a unique situation where NPF if supporting INC. However the core of NPF has formed NDPP which is supported by BJP and will surely win the election
Manipur will go 1-1 between national parties. BJP having NDPP support and ensuring Kukis are also on its side will take the hills, while INC may dominate the valley
Mizoram will be a easy win for MNF like state elections & so will be the case in Tripura where BJP will repeat it's performance
Meghalaya will return to old guard with INC & NPP likely to be the in the race with advantage with INC. Sikkim will continue to be dominated by SDF

Overall

Despite losing some seats in Assam, BJP will gain from this region

Industrial West
This is the commercial heart of India and highly urban area is the source of strength of the BJP. The RSS is based out of Nagpur and Mr Modi is from Gujarat. BJP has managed to rule this region and the grip doesn't seem to loosen

Mahrasthra
This is the second biggest state in terms of seats. Last elections BJP along with Shiv Sena (SS) led a complete dominance taking 42 out of 48 seats. It then formed the state government for the first time. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnadvis has managed to do a decent job and been able to make his personal standing. He along with Mr Gadkari both have ensured that the pace of development picks up in Vidharbha and especially Nagpur. The talks of drought are no longer heard in news. The same is true for Marathwada region where the Jalyukt Shivar Yojana has really addressed the watershed problem.
However rural distress in many regions and bickering with Shiv Sena have been dampeners. INC & NC have tried to gather strength, however the previous image of huge corruptions seems to be a huge impediment. On top of that JVA & MIM have made an alliance and standing in all the seats. They will cut the votes of INC & NC and help BJP-SS alliance only

Gujarat
This is the hub of Mr Modi. In state elections at one point it looked like INC will take the state, but better organization skills of BJP along with comments of some INC leader turned the tide and BJP scraped through. However in national elections, the tide surely will be more towards BJP but a clean sweep like last time will not happen. Many local leaders like Mevani, Alpesh Thakor & Hardik Patel also have started to play a role

Goa
This is a state of family bastions who are guided more by interests rather than ideology. Hence BJP managed to form the government even though INC had more seats. However with death of My Parikar things might change for the party and it will be a tough competition

Overall

BJP here also remains dominant but will lose seats vs 2014

Dravidian South
In our mind share filled with Hindi Belt or West, the media, working professionals and Hindi belt always tends to ignore this region. Even during Modi Wave, this region behaved quite differently. Every state has some regional players who play a very important role. On top of everything, this region contributes to a significant number of seats

Tamil Nadu
The biggest state of this region will first time go into polls without 2 stalwarts- Karunanidhi & J Jayalalitha. On top of that, ruling party had some internal differences and Sasikala who was supposed to take over reins of AIADMK was convicted and is in Jail. Stalin also faced some resistance from Alagiri but has been able to overcome.
BJP, ADMK and smaller parties have formed a alliance on one side, while DMK and INC have been able to ink a pact. This converts the competition into a 2 sided contest. Stalin with a cleaner and stable image will surely have an advantage

Kerala
BJP trying hard to make some inroads has developed some pocket of strengths. However at present it will be tough for it to convert that into seats. The UDF & LDF will seems to fight out between each other with LDF having performed better in recent local body elections.

Karnataka
What BJP did to INC in Goa, Manipur & Meghalaya, INC did to it in Karnataka. When no party got a majority, it supported JD(S) with Kumaraswamy as its leader. BJP has been trying hard to scramble back but at present has not had much luck. On top of that INC & JDS have sealed pact for Lok Sabha
However INC & JDS did not have a easy relationship and has lost some support. On top of that JDS draws its support in South Kar while BJP in North, hence the alliance may be of limited use. However like at many places, BJP will not be able to match 2014

Telangana
TRS has being all things correctly politically. It has manged to stay away from both BJP & INC tactically supporting Center to ensure the funds keep flowing. On top of that it has launched some schemes for poor and farmers which has helped it to comeback even more strongly in an earlier called elections. TDP has decided not to contest, while INC & BJP are on no match

Andhra Pradesh
AP faces tough competition between YSRC & TDP. Like in case of TDP power in whole of AP where it did a phenomenal job is Hyderabad but lost in rural hinterland, the same has been the case in new AP with more focus on Amravati. On top of the coffers have been dry and special status not coming has made things even more tough. All the advantage of this will be taken by YSRC. INC & BJP without alliance with TDP will really struggle in this state

Overall

ADMK, TDP come out as biggest losers, while DMK & YSRC as major gainers. National Parties are minor players

National Picture
This brings us to national picture on how the Lok Sabha will look like and who will form the next government

BJP will come out as the largest party but will lose over 90 seats vs last time. INC will gain roughly 55 of those seats. However this will result in a hung assembly

BJP will be near to the majority but leaves us with several possibilities
1. Swing in favour of NDA and as a coalition actually gets 272+ seats
2. BJP gathers support with Mr Modi as PM
3. BJP gathers support with Mr Gadkari as PM being the condition
4. UPA cobbles together the support
5. Third Front with either INC or BJP supporting it

My guess will be number two option with support coming as follows
NDA(237)+YSR(18)+TRS(13)+TDP(7, on promise of Special Status for AP)+JJP(1) and maybe tactical support from BJP.

Let's see how much of predictions actually fall through

How Kashmir movement is losing it

India just witnessed it's worst terrorist attack where 42 soldiers were martyred in a suicide bombing. While this has filled whole country with anger, many in valley are celebrating this as a step towards victory.

On the contrary I believe the people of valley have started to lose the narrative. Normally when a region wants additional autonomy or more, there are many ways to do it. One is to gain the sympathy of the major powers which then force them to push the host country to offer concessions. This really accelerates if you have valuable resource or strategic location. This happened with South Sudan which was oil rich and Sudan was anti America.

Second way is to scale up the stakes so much which then forces the host to offer concessions. However in this case usually the area asking for additional rights needs to be of significant size as compared to host. Bangladesh was one such example. Components in Yugoslavia was also similar case.

Third way is when the economy of the host country decays so much that it by itself let's go off the steam

Finally the most sustainable is way is to moral upmanship on people of host country. This is challenging but is a very sustainable way of moving forward. Colonialism, Apartheid movt, East Timor as went this way.

Kashmir at this moment presently has nothing. It has taken path of religious terrorism a worst path to choose rather than ethnic militancy which will never have global sympathy. It's separatist leaders are also religious leaders (Geelani is Jamait Islami, Mirwaiz is a cleric. Only Yaseen Malik belongs to JKLF but has chosen wrong partners). This has lead to even street movements showing Paki or ISIS flags to tease normal Indians. Rather than doing so on the contrary, it reduces sympathy for them.

Now trying to up the game will only bring back more violence which rest of the country will be ok to have. The economy of India will not be majorly affected nor does valley have that size to raise the cost.

This blip of violence will pass. As time moves rest of the country will grow economically while valley lags behind even though due to tourism they could be one of the richest. Then the generation of the time will itself fight the extremists to bring back peace and economic development

Tum Bilkul Hum Jaise Nikale

A beautiful poem by Fahmida Riaz, a progressive Pakistani poet on the current situation in India. It was a must share

“Tum bilkul hum jaise nikle
tum bilkul hum jaisey nikley
ab tak kahaN chhupe the bhai
voh moorkhta, voh ghaamarpan
jis mein hum ne sadi ganwai
aakhir pahunchi dwaar tumhaarey
arre badhai bohot badhai

preyt dharam ka naach rahaa hai
qayam Hindu raaj karoge?
saarey ultey kaaj karogay
apna chaman daraaj karogey
tum bhee baithey karogey sochaa
poori hai waisi tayyari
kaun hai Hindu, kaun naheeN hai
tum bhi karogay fatwe jaari
hoga kathin yahaN bhi jeena
raatoN aa jayega paseena
jaisi taisi kata karegi
yahan bhi sabki saans ghutegi
kal dukh se socha karti thi
soch ke bohot hansi aaj aee,
tum bilkul hum jaise nikle
Hum do qaum nahin the bhai!

bhaar mein jaaye shiksha viksha
ab jaahilpan ke gun gaana.
aage gadha hai yeh mat dekho
wapas laao gaya zamana
bhasht karo tum aajayega
ulte paaon chalte jaana
dhyaan na mann mein dooja aaye
bas peeche hi nazar jamana
ek jaap saa kartey jao
vaaram vaar yahi dohrao
kitna veer mahaan tha Bharat
kaisa alishaan tha bharat
phir tum log pohonch jaogay
bas parlok pohonch jaaogay
hum toh hain pehle se wahan par
tum bhi samay nikalte rehna
ab jis nark mein jaao wahan se
chitthi vitthi daalte rehna"

Is Ayodhya Mandir Justified?

6 Dec on my 9th Birthday, there was a Masjid in India that was being demolished. It led to series of riots. It also led to many Mandirs being demolished in our Islamic neighborhood. The year was 1992.

The case is now in now in courts and everytime near the elections the issue always makes a comeback. It is fierselly debated but not much has moved. It surely makes everyone wonder if we will ever have a closure on the issue.

Going into the background, it is alleged that there was a temple in Ayodhya, the birth place of Shri Ram. Then in 1526 the Central Asian Turk Babar invaded India. After failed to defend or establish his rule in central Asia, he tried his luck in India and replaced the Afghan rulers. He never liked India as written in Baburnama where he called it a hot place of Dark ugly people. To show his stamp of rule more due to political reasons he is alleged to have built a Mosque over the sacred place of Mandir. This is the issue.

To start with, critics allege that Ramayana is a mythological story. Then there is a point that there surely was a Masjid that everyone has seen but no Mandir. And there are such many more arguments.

As per my personal opinion, yes Ramayana cannot be taken as a historical document, but it surely represented the essence of India. Centuries of compilations show that contributors were aware of the north south axis of India. The locations in the scripture bear a strong imprint of the geography. In my personal opinion there was a prince in Ayodhya who had a major kingdom (Not over whole of India) and must have been very popular. From his story must have been a starting point of Ramayana.

Overall whatever be the case, Hindus all over India, Nepal and the world have always known what Ayodhya is. It leaves to any doubts that whatever be the history, the location is sacred to Hindu's.

Also the location bears no historical importance to Muslims. However how it is important to Islamists (I am intentionally using Muslim and Islamists differently). As they used it for demanding Pakistan, how they oppose Uniform Civil Code, triple talaq etc, Ayodhya represents notional Islamic domination over India. It represents the feeling we have a Mosque over Ayodhya, while you cannot enter Mecca.

If a Mandir comes up there, people who could not accept democratic rule calling it Hindu rule and then collaborated with British to form Pakistan, see it as a major loss.

Hence while it might be religious for majority, for me Ram Mandir will represent a victory against one of the most regressive mindset of the world and will bring closure to a major issue which forces Hindu's to feel lesser in their majority country.

While I am a secular person, dead against RSS and Stupsanghi supporters, this issue rings a bell in me. It reminds me how I feel at sight of Harmandir Sahib (Not Golden Temple) being shattered by this Hinduist rule of 1984. Let's hope for a rightful closure at the earliest.

Attack on CBI - One more institution

In an early morning coup like attack, the Modi govt attacked the premium investigating agency. Though this is not the first institution that this govt sought to undermine, nor was it surprising, but the effects of it will be long lasting

The CBI director is chosen by a collegium of PM, CJI of Supreme Court and Leader of opposition. He or she has a fixed tenure of 2 years and can be removed by the same collegium. The government tried to bend the rules by sending him on leave on flimsy grounds. If the government is successful, it will have created a path to threaten and intimidate the future director and can easily use CBI as a political tool (Although even now CBI is somewhat used, but in future that discreteness will all be gone)

This is not the first institution government has undermined. Supreme Court is alleged to be soft on Amit Shah via previous CJ. It is alleged to send his case to favourable judges. This along with pressure helped him escape from many cases. When government has taken oath, it did not appoint CVC and CIC. If CIC and other Information Commissioner are not there, it leads to lag in RTI appeals and government can avoid the transparency. It further tried to tone down power of CIC but due to severe opposition, has at present put it on hold.

Similarly, if CVC i.e. the Vigilance Commissioner is not there, then it will affect the probe of corruption. If there is not probe, then all the charges can simply be knocked off

Another notable action is not to appoint anyone in statistical organisation wherein you stop information like employment figure, growth rate of unorganized sector etc. Without such information, you can easily use propaganda to claim that mudra is creating jobs, more pf accounts that can never be accurate reflection.

The list can go on and on. People many times ask me if not Modi then whom. To such Stupsanghis, any answer can never satisfy them. To those who have logic over emotions, I will say a great nation is formed due to its great institutions which are transparent, accountable and work within their defined jobs. A myopia of a strong leader who undermines institutions, is infact strong to safeguard his power and cause permanent damage which people realize after damage has been done

We need to oppose the move. I hope SC saves this institution but we have to remember if this is way this government will keep going, 2019 may be our last chance for course correction. May the right in us help us.

The Great Game of Baluchistan

In the remotest corner of Pakistan there is a conflict going on, a conflict where people are fighting for their Independence, a conflict which has involved Asian powers like China and India, a conflict which may soon involve the World Power of USA, a conflict which can fit into many of the global power games, this region which in history was a empty corner will now become the center of the great game, this area is the region of Baluchistan located in the western part of Pakistan, Southern Afghanistan and South Eastern Iran.

Baluchistan and it's strategic location. It is spread around 3 countries presently

The history of this region is as old as this region. The first proof of wheat being grown was found in Mehrgarh located in Baluchistan. The Baluch like the Pashtun have been fiercely independent people. The British realizing this fact did not try to capture the area but rather ruled them through the Khan of Kalat and various Sardars just directly ruling a area between Baluchistan and Afghanistan cutting the latter's access to sea. Even before the British in the power struggle between Indian, Persian and then later Afghan rulers this area was a buffer between various kingdom of these areas. This area which is one of the most barren regions did not have the return of investment to capture and every kingdom was happy to keep it as their buffer.

However things changed when the British left India. The rulers of Baluchistan site historical references to prove that they were recognized as de jure independent by the British like Nepal. In the confusing times that were prevalent the Pakistani's finally captured Baluchistan in 1948. Pakistan was always skeptic of India and the Kashmir conflict immediately after Independence created a narrative in Pakistan that they are a thin strip of plain land which needs Baluchistan and Afghanistan as it's strategic depth in times of a attach from it's eastern neighbour. The discovery of various minerals, oil and gas has made this land even more valuable for it.

Due to these reasons Baluchistan is too valuable for Pakistan. It will try to keep it at any cost. It has been suppressing the freedom movements in Baluchistan very violently. There is virtually a martial rule in this state. Pakistan has also kept Baluchistan province with a lot of Pashtun population areas. It serves twin objectives. Firstly it has ensured that the Baluch are a minority in it's own province. Secondly it also ensures that the Pashtun in Pakistan are divided between the province of Khyber Pakthunwa, Baluchistan and FATA. This also helps it to address the Pashtunistan movement that may emerge in it's other eastern province.The province is now also critical for Pakistan as it's second deep sea port has been built at Gwadar, which relieves it from a situation it faced in previous wars where it's only port of Karachi was blocked by Indian Navy. Hence in this great game whatever be the aspirations of the people of Baluchistan, Pakistan will never let it go and use it's last of resources. Losing this state might be the end of this nation and it knows that.

The Chinese have also made huge investments in this province. The Chinese are hungry for minerals due to the huge demand back at home. Also China wants to secure it's oil supply routes and Gwadar forms a key port in its string of pearls which it is creating in Indian Ocean to secure it's routes. It has made huge investments in Gwadar. Also Chinese are also creating a Road, Rail line and a Pipeline through Pakistan linking Western China. These all lines meet the warm water of Indian ocean at Gwadar. As already stated Pakistan losing Baluchistan might mean the end of Pakistan and which is the last thing China wants. Pakistan is virtually a military and transit country for them and would preserve it at any cost. Hence an Independent Baluchistan will be as seriously defended by China as it would defend North Korea

The third big player in this game is India. India has it's eye of vast oil resources in Central Asia, Afghanistan. It also wants to trade with these countries. Till now it's access has been blocked by Pakistan. It does not trust Pakistan and hence cancelled it's share from the Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline. Also India would ultimately like Pakistan to be broken into 4 to 6 countries. This will ensure that all the threats from the neighbourhood are removed and then can focus it's energies on development and tackling China a large part of it which now it has to divert on defense and terrorism. It is also playing limited role in supporting the Baluch insurgency from it's consulates in Afghanistan. A free Baluchistan will help India in addressing both it's enemy neighbours of Pakistan and China. It will give a serious dent to Chinese plans using Pakistan and again would have to depend on routes from Indian Ocean which India can tackle if it requires.

USA is a new entrant in this great game. It has just started to enter into it and it's role is presently like a jelly which will take its shape as the time passes and certain confusions are cleared out. USA wants to stay in Afghanistan via it's bases for a long term. It has its eye on the vast resources in Central Asia and would like to challenge the dependency of these nations of Russia. It also wants to stop the access of Russia to the warm waters. However to fulfill this aim it has to depend on a unstable Pakistan, a country where the hate of for USA is growing day by day. For maintaining access to Afghanistan the only choice present for USA is through Afghanistan with other routes either too costly or are closed for it. A free Baluchistan will give direct access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Sitting in Baluchistan it can also put pressure on Iran and take decisive action if required. It also gives it a chance to create Baluch Insurgency in the Iranian Baluch area and create instability in Iran. However USA cannot directly go for proclaiming an Independent Baluchistan. It needs Pakistan to counter upcoming countries of India and China too. USA is playing a murky game where presently the Baluchistan card will be used to counter Pakistan and put it in line. However going by the conditions in this unstable country it will be no surprise that USA might dump it if it finds the right condition and create an Independent Baluchistan

Iran would be another country which would oppose Baluchistan. It's Baluch area are located strategically over the strait of Hormuz, and over Indian Ocean the route from where trade of Suez Canal passes. This is of immense strategic interest which it will not lose at any cost. It has been encouraging India to build the Chah Bahar port in it's Baluch area hoping that this would help it get the trade of Afghanistan and Central Asia and create some development in it's least developed region which will help it quell the insurgency going on there.

Afghanistan would overall want an Independent Baluchistan. A much more ideal situation for them would be to merge this country in "Greater Pashtunistan" no longer making it landlocked. Many Pashtun take Baluch as Pashtuns only but it is too much wishful thinking by them. Overall Afghanistan wants to remove it's dependency on Pakistan and this would be the way. However they might not be happy to lose some areas to Baluchistan even if these are one of the most barren areas.

Central Asia presently is very neutral to this. If it helps to create peace in Afghanistan and open the land routes they would be more than willing to support it. However most of these countries are in so state presently to dictate any terms and would be mere spectators.

Baluchistan if free would make one of the most sort after country which can change the fortune of it's people and turn it into another Saudi Arabia. It would be a country which would be very rich in Oil, Gas and Minerals having a very small population. It would be a country sitting on the 2 biggest trade route and with Asia becoming the future it could become the heart of it. It is a country which formed can turn out to create all right conditions for some countries and misery for some other.

It is hence to no surprise that the "Great Game of Baluchistan" has begun and it will be very intensely fought. Which way it tilts will decide which way the power of the world tilts.

The hidden time bomb in neighbourhood:- Population Explosion in Pakistan

In India we always have though population explosion in Bangladesh and their illegal immigration is a big issue. We cannot be wrong in this. On the other side Pakistan is a much bigger issue in terms of Population. Bangladesh infact is doing very good in population control and even better than India. People talk about demographic dividend but for that countries need to form a base which Pakistan is badly failing to form that base. In such a case like many Sub Saharan countries it is leading to the opposite of Demographic Curse.  

Pakistan surely is lagging on key factors and I would like to highlight the same through comparison with India and BD Why these 2 countries because all 3 were part of British India so basically a comparison will have context

Country           1951 Pop           2011 Pop      Growth

Pak                      37M                  193M              5.21 Times

Ind                       370M                 1210M            3.27 Times

BD                        44M                   142M             3.22 Times

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (Total Children a Woman has in her life)

Pak:- 3.3

Ind:- 2.55

BD:- 2.2

Annual Population Growth Rate

Pak:- 2.71% 

Ind:- 1.58%

BD:- 1.67%

Population Density based on Arable Area

Arable Area is the area in the country which can be productively used for Agriculture and other activities. For Eg area of Baluchistan or Rajasthan cannot be used in general besides few areas.

Pak:- 962

Ind:- 833

BD:- 1946 (But BD has one of the most fertile areas which gives 2.5 Crops per year as compared to 1.5 Crops in Ind and Pak, so the in equivalent terms this reduces to 1167 )

Median Age

Pak:-21.2

Ind:-25.9

BD:-23.5

Literacy Rate

Pak:- 57% 

(Pakistan has not switched to international definition of a person being literate if he can read and write a short para to be literate while both Ind and BD have. In Pak if a person can sign his name he is considered as literate. Hence the real literacy rates are though to be even lower but a certain number cannot be given)

Ind:-74%

BD:-78.8%

School Enrollment Rate

Pak:- 72%

Ind:- 99%

BD:- 96%

Per Capita GDP (PPP)

Pak:-2891$

Ind:- 3876$

BD:-1883$

GDP Growth Rate (2009-13, CAGR)

Pak:-3.1%

Ind:- 7.0%

BD:- 6.2%

Poverty         1992           2010

Pak                30.6%           28.0% (WB estimates this as Govt has not released fig since 2002)

Ind                  45.0%           29.2%

BD                 56.6%           31.0%

There are many definitions. I am taking as per World Bank Site 1.25$ PPP Definition

So as seen from these pts

1. Pakistan's population is growing at an Alarming pace much faster than Ind or BD (SL etc are even slower)

2. Pakistan is not sending it's children to school while both Ind and BD are doing a good job. This means though population is growing faster many more illiterates are being added in Pak which is not the case in Ind.

3. The GDP growth rates have not been growing to keep pace with population growth

4. Due to good GDP growth rates Ind and BD have been able to lift huge population out of poverty while Pakistan has been quite slow in the process

5. Pakistan has the youngest population which is least literate and hence in the worse position as compared to Ind and Pak to take advantage of the demographic dividend.

6. If population grows at the same pace it will put pressure on the land and it may surpass BD in the density/arable land (In equivalent terms)

My personal view is Pakistan is in a very critical situation and if something is not done it will be too late. Another worrying point is that if I compare Afghanistan with Pak on same numbers Afg is worse off. So Pak itself is in a crisis situation and it may have to bear Afghanistan which can increase load on it even earlier.

For the numbers I have tried to use many sources to come on the least controversial numbers. These include WB site, UNICEF site, Wikipedia.