It's 2019 and the much awaited elections are back. For the ruling party supporters, they are in hope and almost certainly believe that the government is coming back. They hope the agenda started by the government will be completed in the next 5 years. Many are doubly sure, that the government will again get a majority. They believe that the charm of Mr Modi will take it to their side. They believe in a presidential style competition between Mr Modi vs other or Pappu or Mahamilavat depending on where you belong to.
For the opposition supporters, they hope that the government will be dislodged as they believe this government is bad for country. It is destroying the institutions. They are hoping though less sure that the government will be dislodged.
But which way will the election go. It's surely very difficult to predict. The country is divided and biased views are presented. I due to my job get to travel across various parts of the country which includes both urban and rural areas. As many Indians I am interested in politics. Hence besides work, I also try to get the political mood of the area. While I am no expert I surely will try to build in an unbiased analysis on which way the elections will swing.
To start with, we must look at India by dividing into many regions and further states. The regions and states behave very differently and hence only a national view would not be fair. The regions are divided based on the language, culture and type of political structure (Bipolar or Multipolar, National vs Regional parties etc)
The Minority North
We start from the north of the country. There are two states where our Majority is in minority in these states, hence the dynamics are quite different. However these states are not aloof and surely there are some regions where the Modi wave impacted like Jammu region of J&K
J&K
Last time it was a even split of 3 each between BJP & PDP. However it will not be so straight forward. PDP faces massive anger and anti incumbency in valley along with likelihood of boycott by many sections. PDP which draws it's support from more orthodox and boycott crowd is likely to lose from this and NC will gain
In Leh where BJP had won will find it very difficult. The MP had quit the party and overall it's in a weak state. Here too NC is likely to gain
In Jammu region, NC & INC have an alliance. However BJP is still very strong here and the alliance in the end may not be successful.
Punjab
Vidhan Sabha election was a triangular fight between INC, AAP & SAD-BJP. INC edged out both these parties comfortably. Much has changed in state in favour of INC. AAP has split and dodged by infighting. SAD has not been able to overcome the "Beadbi" of Guru Granth Sahib and it's Majha division has split in SAD (Taksali) all to advantage of INC
Overall
The Hindi Hills
The two hill states are known to give clean sweeps. In 2009 it was INC and 2014, it was BJP. BJP repeated the feat in the state elections. Not much has changed in these states to have any major changes, except for perhaps senior BJP leader Gen Khanduri's son joining INC. Overall a clean sweep of BJP is expected with INC slipping one odd seat
Trans Yamuna Hindi Heartland
Not to confuse people, these are states of Haryana, Rajasthan, National Capital Delhi and UT of Chandigarh. Most had been bipolar except Haryana, but with coming of AAP have turned into multi cornered elections except Rajasthan where it is still Bipolar
Rajasthan
The biggest prize here are the 25 seats of Rajasthan where BJP had a clean sweep last time. However in Vidhan Sabha, it was trumped by INC, which though of anti incumbency just managed to cross the half way mark. However the scenario will be different in Lok Sabha, where Mr Modi would be still popular and advantage will be with BJP but not with clean sweep like last time
Haryana
In Haryana BJP continues to be comfortable. INC is marred by infighting, INLD has split between 2 Chautalas and JJP being formed splitting the Jaat vote and AAP not so strong. If an AAP-JJP-INC alliance is formed, BJP has plan B to tie up with INLD. So surely the state is with BJP
Delhi
With AAP-INC alliance almost ruled out, will favour BJP. However AAP also is in a much better position than 2014 and will give a tough fight to BJP. INC surely will be a washout here
Chandigarh
Sole seat of Chandigarh has strong INC candidate of Pawan Bansal while Kiron Kher didn't do much and will not get the ticket. AAP is quite weak and will not make much impact like last time. In a tight race, advantage is with INC here
Overall
The Ganga Hindi Heartland
This is the core of the country contributing to the most seats. The region is divided into castes and jatis with powerful ties. On top of that we have powerful set of alliances taking on each other. Here the BJP had swept last time. It is still dominant here but will surely drop seats
Uttar Pradesh
With SP & BSP tying up on paper is a very big threat to BJP. However the votes are not likely to be mutually transferable. The Yadavs of SP and Jatavs and other SCs are not known to like each other and would rather vote for BJP & INC respectively. Similarly on other side, dropping INC may actually be better for SP-BSP. The upper caste vote would have gone to BJP rather than SP-BSP if there was an alliance. Now it will remain with INC just impacting BJP. The state is all set for a cut throat competition where Mr Modi surely has a great personal appeal but opposition has got it's arithmetic right
Bihar
2 Maha Gathbandans are fighting it out. Each of them are fighting cut throat for each caste, each vote. The state has swung many ways. Mr Modi is popular, Nitish has good image, Paswan has a secure vote base. On other hand Lalu has a secure vote base but is marred by his son's fighting, INC is not getting its favourite seats and Kushwaha who is of same caste as Nitish is no match to him. In the end advantage is with BJP but still opposition cannot be discounted
Overall
Heart of India
These are two states which BJP lost of INC recently. These states are mostly Bipolar with other players only playing role of a destroyer and cutter of votes. Mr Modi has a great personal appeal in these states
Madhya Pradesh
Even though INC won the state elections, but the advantage is surely with BJP because of personal appeal of Mr Modi. In State elections BJP polled more seats than INC but due to concentration of votes lost in terms of seats. If state elections are super imposed, BJP will win 16 seats.
Chhattisgarh
BJP was routed in this state in state elections. The tribals are clearly not happy with the party. Also INC did everything correct in this state. INC will take majority of seats. However since it is national elections definitely BJP will perform much better than state elections
Overall
East Central
This is the region where BJP has spent disproportionate share of it's energy as it feels, it will offset the minor losses it faces in other places. The INC as a major opposition is virtually become a very minor player with BJP taking it's place. However, except for Jharkhand, the regional satraps still continue to dominate and push back BJP here. Here the predictions can go off the track for most, as there are many unknowns
West Bengal
The TMC & BJP are having a fight like cats & dogs with a very toxic campaign on both sides. This has pushed INC & CPM out of mind share but in the process we tend to underestimate their pockets of strength. The BJP like Tripura surely has the ability to surprise and gain a lot of seats here. Will be the state where I will have my eye
Orrisa
The tribal heavy state is dominated by BJD who hopes to repeat the magic again as we have the state elections also going simultaneously. BJP came in very powerfully at 3rd in terms of votes and 2nd in terms of seats. It has improved on that in local elections. Whatever be the case, BJP will have more seats than last time
Jharkhand
This state always has a fractured mandate except last time. This time it will surely return back to it's normal course. The tribals may not back BJP with the strength like they did last time
Overall
North East
It's a very different region from rest of country. It is highly diverse in terms of states, tribes, insider outsider, religion etc. The tendency has been to be with the national dominant party. BJP has made massive strides in this region but lately due to the citizenship bill lost a large amount of support too. INC has it's pockets of strength but is losing it's grip
Assam
Contributing to more than half the seats, Assam holds the key for North East. BJP managed to dislocate INC both in state & national elections, still has the momentum but will not be able to repeat the performance. INC will try hard to regain the lost ground but will be minorly successful
Other Sisters
I am not ignoring these states like most mainland Indians. Only trying to club them here else this section will drag
Arunachal where BJP took 1 seat last time and then in a mid night coup ensured a defection of all MLAs except the Chief Minister!!! will continue to dominate.
Nagaland has a unique situation where NPF if supporting INC. However the core of NPF has formed NDPP which is supported by BJP and will surely win the election
Manipur will go 1-1 between national parties. BJP having NDPP support and ensuring Kukis are also on its side will take the hills, while INC may dominate the valley
Mizoram will be a easy win for MNF like state elections & so will be the case in Tripura where BJP will repeat it's performance
Meghalaya will return to old guard with INC & NPP likely to be the in the race with advantage with INC. Sikkim will continue to be dominated by SDF
Overall
Industrial West
This is the commercial heart of India and highly urban area is the source of strength of the BJP. The RSS is based out of Nagpur and Mr Modi is from Gujarat. BJP has managed to rule this region and the grip doesn't seem to loosen
Mahrasthra
This is the second biggest state in terms of seats. Last elections BJP along with Shiv Sena (SS) led a complete dominance taking 42 out of 48 seats. It then formed the state government for the first time. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnadvis has managed to do a decent job and been able to make his personal standing. He along with Mr Gadkari both have ensured that the pace of development picks up in Vidharbha and especially Nagpur. The talks of drought are no longer heard in news. The same is true for Marathwada region where the Jalyukt Shivar Yojana has really addressed the watershed problem.
However rural distress in many regions and bickering with Shiv Sena have been dampeners. INC & NC have tried to gather strength, however the previous image of huge corruptions seems to be a huge impediment. On top of that JVA & MIM have made an alliance and standing in all the seats. They will cut the votes of INC & NC and help BJP-SS alliance only
Gujarat
This is the hub of Mr Modi. In state elections at one point it looked like INC will take the state, but better organization skills of BJP along with comments of some INC leader turned the tide and BJP scraped through. However in national elections, the tide surely will be more towards BJP but a clean sweep like last time will not happen. Many local leaders like Mevani, Alpesh Thakor & Hardik Patel also have started to play a role
Goa
This is a state of family bastions who are guided more by interests rather than ideology. Hence BJP managed to form the government even though INC had more seats. However with death of My Parikar things might change for the party and it will be a tough competition
Overall
Dravidian South
In our mind share filled with Hindi Belt or West, the media, working professionals and Hindi belt always tends to ignore this region. Even during Modi Wave, this region behaved quite differently. Every state has some regional players who play a very important role. On top of everything, this region contributes to a significant number of seats
Tamil Nadu
The biggest state of this region will first time go into polls without 2 stalwarts- Karunanidhi & J Jayalalitha. On top of that, ruling party had some internal differences and Sasikala who was supposed to take over reins of AIADMK was convicted and is in Jail. Stalin also faced some resistance from Alagiri but has been able to overcome.
BJP, ADMK and smaller parties have formed a alliance on one side, while DMK and INC have been able to ink a pact. This converts the competition into a 2 sided contest. Stalin with a cleaner and stable image will surely have an advantage
Kerala
BJP trying hard to make some inroads has developed some pocket of strengths. However at present it will be tough for it to convert that into seats. The UDF & LDF will seems to fight out between each other with LDF having performed better in recent local body elections.
Karnataka
What BJP did to INC in Goa, Manipur & Meghalaya, INC did to it in Karnataka. When no party got a majority, it supported JD(S) with Kumaraswamy as its leader. BJP has been trying hard to scramble back but at present has not had much luck. On top of that INC & JDS have sealed pact for Lok Sabha
However INC & JDS did not have a easy relationship and has lost some support. On top of that JDS draws its support in South Kar while BJP in North, hence the alliance may be of limited use. However like at many places, BJP will not be able to match 2014
Telangana
TRS has being all things correctly politically. It has manged to stay away from both BJP & INC tactically supporting Center to ensure the funds keep flowing. On top of that it has launched some schemes for poor and farmers which has helped it to comeback even more strongly in an earlier called elections. TDP has decided not to contest, while INC & BJP are on no match
Andhra Pradesh
AP faces tough competition between YSRC & TDP. Like in case of TDP power in whole of AP where it did a phenomenal job is Hyderabad but lost in rural hinterland, the same has been the case in new AP with more focus on Amravati. On top of the coffers have been dry and special status not coming has made things even more tough. All the advantage of this will be taken by YSRC. INC & BJP without alliance with TDP will really struggle in this state
Overall
National Picture
This brings us to national picture on how the Lok Sabha will look like and who will form the next government
BJP will come out as the largest party but will lose over 90 seats vs last time. INC will gain roughly 55 of those seats. However this will result in a hung assembly
BJP will be near to the majority but leaves us with several possibilities
1. Swing in favour of NDA and as a coalition actually gets 272+ seats
2. BJP gathers support with Mr Modi as PM
3. BJP gathers support with Mr Gadkari as PM being the condition
4. UPA cobbles together the support
5. Third Front with either INC or BJP supporting it
My guess will be number two option with support coming as follows
NDA(237)+YSR(18)+TRS(13)+TDP(7, on promise of Special Status for AP)+JJP(1) and maybe tactical support from BJP.
Let's see how much of predictions actually fall through
For the opposition supporters, they hope that the government will be dislodged as they believe this government is bad for country. It is destroying the institutions. They are hoping though less sure that the government will be dislodged.
But which way will the election go. It's surely very difficult to predict. The country is divided and biased views are presented. I due to my job get to travel across various parts of the country which includes both urban and rural areas. As many Indians I am interested in politics. Hence besides work, I also try to get the political mood of the area. While I am no expert I surely will try to build in an unbiased analysis on which way the elections will swing.
To start with, we must look at India by dividing into many regions and further states. The regions and states behave very differently and hence only a national view would not be fair. The regions are divided based on the language, culture and type of political structure (Bipolar or Multipolar, National vs Regional parties etc)
The Minority North
We start from the north of the country. There are two states where our Majority is in minority in these states, hence the dynamics are quite different. However these states are not aloof and surely there are some regions where the Modi wave impacted like Jammu region of J&K
J&K
Last time it was a even split of 3 each between BJP & PDP. However it will not be so straight forward. PDP faces massive anger and anti incumbency in valley along with likelihood of boycott by many sections. PDP which draws it's support from more orthodox and boycott crowd is likely to lose from this and NC will gain
In Leh where BJP had won will find it very difficult. The MP had quit the party and overall it's in a weak state. Here too NC is likely to gain
In Jammu region, NC & INC have an alliance. However BJP is still very strong here and the alliance in the end may not be successful.
Punjab
Vidhan Sabha election was a triangular fight between INC, AAP & SAD-BJP. INC edged out both these parties comfortably. Much has changed in state in favour of INC. AAP has split and dodged by infighting. SAD has not been able to overcome the "Beadbi" of Guru Granth Sahib and it's Majha division has split in SAD (Taksali) all to advantage of INC
Overall
 |
| It surely is gain for INC in this region |
The two hill states are known to give clean sweeps. In 2009 it was INC and 2014, it was BJP. BJP repeated the feat in the state elections. Not much has changed in these states to have any major changes, except for perhaps senior BJP leader Gen Khanduri's son joining INC. Overall a clean sweep of BJP is expected with INC slipping one odd seat
 |
| BJP holds it fort |
Not to confuse people, these are states of Haryana, Rajasthan, National Capital Delhi and UT of Chandigarh. Most had been bipolar except Haryana, but with coming of AAP have turned into multi cornered elections except Rajasthan where it is still Bipolar
Rajasthan
The biggest prize here are the 25 seats of Rajasthan where BJP had a clean sweep last time. However in Vidhan Sabha, it was trumped by INC, which though of anti incumbency just managed to cross the half way mark. However the scenario will be different in Lok Sabha, where Mr Modi would be still popular and advantage will be with BJP but not with clean sweep like last time
Haryana
In Haryana BJP continues to be comfortable. INC is marred by infighting, INLD has split between 2 Chautalas and JJP being formed splitting the Jaat vote and AAP not so strong. If an AAP-JJP-INC alliance is formed, BJP has plan B to tie up with INLD. So surely the state is with BJP
Delhi
With AAP-INC alliance almost ruled out, will favour BJP. However AAP also is in a much better position than 2014 and will give a tough fight to BJP. INC surely will be a washout here
Chandigarh
Sole seat of Chandigarh has strong INC candidate of Pawan Bansal while Kiron Kher didn't do much and will not get the ticket. AAP is quite weak and will not make much impact like last time. In a tight race, advantage is with INC here
Overall
 |
| BJP remains the power house but will lose seats |
This is the core of the country contributing to the most seats. The region is divided into castes and jatis with powerful ties. On top of that we have powerful set of alliances taking on each other. Here the BJP had swept last time. It is still dominant here but will surely drop seats
Uttar Pradesh
With SP & BSP tying up on paper is a very big threat to BJP. However the votes are not likely to be mutually transferable. The Yadavs of SP and Jatavs and other SCs are not known to like each other and would rather vote for BJP & INC respectively. Similarly on other side, dropping INC may actually be better for SP-BSP. The upper caste vote would have gone to BJP rather than SP-BSP if there was an alliance. Now it will remain with INC just impacting BJP. The state is all set for a cut throat competition where Mr Modi surely has a great personal appeal but opposition has got it's arithmetic right
Bihar
2 Maha Gathbandans are fighting it out. Each of them are fighting cut throat for each caste, each vote. The state has swung many ways. Mr Modi is popular, Nitish has good image, Paswan has a secure vote base. On other hand Lalu has a secure vote base but is marred by his son's fighting, INC is not getting its favourite seats and Kushwaha who is of same caste as Nitish is no match to him. In the end advantage is with BJP but still opposition cannot be discounted
Overall
 |
| BJP dominates but huge loss as clean sweep will not repeated due to alliances. INC remains minor player |
These are two states which BJP lost of INC recently. These states are mostly Bipolar with other players only playing role of a destroyer and cutter of votes. Mr Modi has a great personal appeal in these states
Madhya Pradesh
Even though INC won the state elections, but the advantage is surely with BJP because of personal appeal of Mr Modi. In State elections BJP polled more seats than INC but due to concentration of votes lost in terms of seats. If state elections are super imposed, BJP will win 16 seats.
Chhattisgarh
BJP was routed in this state in state elections. The tribals are clearly not happy with the party. Also INC did everything correct in this state. INC will take majority of seats. However since it is national elections definitely BJP will perform much better than state elections
Overall
 |
| BJP dominates but will lose seats vs 2014 |
This is the region where BJP has spent disproportionate share of it's energy as it feels, it will offset the minor losses it faces in other places. The INC as a major opposition is virtually become a very minor player with BJP taking it's place. However, except for Jharkhand, the regional satraps still continue to dominate and push back BJP here. Here the predictions can go off the track for most, as there are many unknowns
West Bengal
The TMC & BJP are having a fight like cats & dogs with a very toxic campaign on both sides. This has pushed INC & CPM out of mind share but in the process we tend to underestimate their pockets of strength. The BJP like Tripura surely has the ability to surprise and gain a lot of seats here. Will be the state where I will have my eye
Orrisa
The tribal heavy state is dominated by BJD who hopes to repeat the magic again as we have the state elections also going simultaneously. BJP came in very powerfully at 3rd in terms of votes and 2nd in terms of seats. It has improved on that in local elections. Whatever be the case, BJP will have more seats than last time
Jharkhand
This state always has a fractured mandate except last time. This time it will surely return back to it's normal course. The tribals may not back BJP with the strength like they did last time
Overall
 |
| Paradoxical region where BJP gains but doesn't dominate |
It's a very different region from rest of country. It is highly diverse in terms of states, tribes, insider outsider, religion etc. The tendency has been to be with the national dominant party. BJP has made massive strides in this region but lately due to the citizenship bill lost a large amount of support too. INC has it's pockets of strength but is losing it's grip
Assam
Contributing to more than half the seats, Assam holds the key for North East. BJP managed to dislocate INC both in state & national elections, still has the momentum but will not be able to repeat the performance. INC will try hard to regain the lost ground but will be minorly successful
Other Sisters
I am not ignoring these states like most mainland Indians. Only trying to club them here else this section will drag
Arunachal where BJP took 1 seat last time and then in a mid night coup ensured a defection of all MLAs except the Chief Minister!!! will continue to dominate.
Nagaland has a unique situation where NPF if supporting INC. However the core of NPF has formed NDPP which is supported by BJP and will surely win the election
Manipur will go 1-1 between national parties. BJP having NDPP support and ensuring Kukis are also on its side will take the hills, while INC may dominate the valley
Mizoram will be a easy win for MNF like state elections & so will be the case in Tripura where BJP will repeat it's performance
Meghalaya will return to old guard with INC & NPP likely to be the in the race with advantage with INC. Sikkim will continue to be dominated by SDF
Overall
 |
| Despite losing some seats in Assam, BJP will gain from this region |
Industrial West
This is the commercial heart of India and highly urban area is the source of strength of the BJP. The RSS is based out of Nagpur and Mr Modi is from Gujarat. BJP has managed to rule this region and the grip doesn't seem to loosen
Mahrasthra
This is the second biggest state in terms of seats. Last elections BJP along with Shiv Sena (SS) led a complete dominance taking 42 out of 48 seats. It then formed the state government for the first time. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnadvis has managed to do a decent job and been able to make his personal standing. He along with Mr Gadkari both have ensured that the pace of development picks up in Vidharbha and especially Nagpur. The talks of drought are no longer heard in news. The same is true for Marathwada region where the Jalyukt Shivar Yojana has really addressed the watershed problem.
However rural distress in many regions and bickering with Shiv Sena have been dampeners. INC & NC have tried to gather strength, however the previous image of huge corruptions seems to be a huge impediment. On top of that JVA & MIM have made an alliance and standing in all the seats. They will cut the votes of INC & NC and help BJP-SS alliance only
Gujarat
This is the hub of Mr Modi. In state elections at one point it looked like INC will take the state, but better organization skills of BJP along with comments of some INC leader turned the tide and BJP scraped through. However in national elections, the tide surely will be more towards BJP but a clean sweep like last time will not happen. Many local leaders like Mevani, Alpesh Thakor & Hardik Patel also have started to play a role
Goa
This is a state of family bastions who are guided more by interests rather than ideology. Hence BJP managed to form the government even though INC had more seats. However with death of My Parikar things might change for the party and it will be a tough competition
Overall
 |
| BJP here also remains dominant but will lose seats vs 2014 |
In our mind share filled with Hindi Belt or West, the media, working professionals and Hindi belt always tends to ignore this region. Even during Modi Wave, this region behaved quite differently. Every state has some regional players who play a very important role. On top of everything, this region contributes to a significant number of seats
Tamil Nadu
The biggest state of this region will first time go into polls without 2 stalwarts- Karunanidhi & J Jayalalitha. On top of that, ruling party had some internal differences and Sasikala who was supposed to take over reins of AIADMK was convicted and is in Jail. Stalin also faced some resistance from Alagiri but has been able to overcome.
BJP, ADMK and smaller parties have formed a alliance on one side, while DMK and INC have been able to ink a pact. This converts the competition into a 2 sided contest. Stalin with a cleaner and stable image will surely have an advantage
Kerala
BJP trying hard to make some inroads has developed some pocket of strengths. However at present it will be tough for it to convert that into seats. The UDF & LDF will seems to fight out between each other with LDF having performed better in recent local body elections.
Karnataka
What BJP did to INC in Goa, Manipur & Meghalaya, INC did to it in Karnataka. When no party got a majority, it supported JD(S) with Kumaraswamy as its leader. BJP has been trying hard to scramble back but at present has not had much luck. On top of that INC & JDS have sealed pact for Lok Sabha
However INC & JDS did not have a easy relationship and has lost some support. On top of that JDS draws its support in South Kar while BJP in North, hence the alliance may be of limited use. However like at many places, BJP will not be able to match 2014
Telangana
TRS has being all things correctly politically. It has manged to stay away from both BJP & INC tactically supporting Center to ensure the funds keep flowing. On top of that it has launched some schemes for poor and farmers which has helped it to comeback even more strongly in an earlier called elections. TDP has decided not to contest, while INC & BJP are on no match
Andhra Pradesh
AP faces tough competition between YSRC & TDP. Like in case of TDP power in whole of AP where it did a phenomenal job is Hyderabad but lost in rural hinterland, the same has been the case in new AP with more focus on Amravati. On top of the coffers have been dry and special status not coming has made things even more tough. All the advantage of this will be taken by YSRC. INC & BJP without alliance with TDP will really struggle in this state
Overall
 |
| ADMK, TDP come out as biggest losers, while DMK & YSRC as major gainers. National Parties are minor players |
National Picture
This brings us to national picture on how the Lok Sabha will look like and who will form the next government
BJP will come out as the largest party but will lose over 90 seats vs last time. INC will gain roughly 55 of those seats. However this will result in a hung assembly
1. Swing in favour of NDA and as a coalition actually gets 272+ seats
2. BJP gathers support with Mr Modi as PM
3. BJP gathers support with Mr Gadkari as PM being the condition
4. UPA cobbles together the support
5. Third Front with either INC or BJP supporting it
My guess will be number two option with support coming as follows
NDA(237)+YSR(18)+TRS(13)+TDP(7, on promise of Special Status for AP)+JJP(1) and maybe tactical support from BJP.
Let's see how much of predictions actually fall through
