In India we always have though population explosion in Bangladesh and their illegal immigration is a big issue. We cannot be wrong in this. On the other side Pakistan is a much bigger issue in terms of Population. Bangladesh infact is doing very good in population control and even better than India. People talk about demographic dividend but for that countries need to form a
base which Pakistan is badly failing to form that base. In such a case like many Sub Saharan countries it is leading to the opposite of
Demographic Curse.
Pakistan surely is lagging on key factors and I
would like to highlight the same through comparison with India and BD Why these 2 countries because all 3 were part of British
India so basically a comparison will have context
Country
1951 Pop 2011
Pop Growth
Pak
37M
193M 5.21 Times
Ind
370M
1210M 3.27
Times
BD
44M
142M
3.22 Times
TOTAL
FERTILITY RATE (Total
Children a Woman has in her life)
Pak:- 3.3
Ind:-
2.55
BD:- 2.2
Annual
Population Growth Rate
Pak:- 2.71%
Ind:-
1.58%
BD:-
1.67%
Population
Density based on Arable Area
Arable
Area is the area in the country which can be productively used for Agriculture
and other activities. For Eg area of Baluchistan or Rajasthan cannot be used in
general besides few areas.
Pak:- 962
Ind:- 833
BD:- 1946 (But BD has one
of the most fertile areas which gives 2.5 Crops per year as compared to 1.5
Crops in Ind and Pak, so the in equivalent terms this reduces to 1167 )
Median
Age
Pak:-21.2
Ind:-25.9
BD:-23.5
Literacy
Rate
Pak:- 57%
(Pakistan
has not switched to international definition of a person being literate if he
can read and write a short para to be literate while both Ind and BD have. In
Pak if a person can sign his name he is considered as literate. Hence the real
literacy rates are though to be even lower but a certain number cannot be given)
Ind:-74%
BD:-78.8%
School
Enrollment Rate
Pak:- 72%
Ind:- 99%
BD:- 96%
Per
Capita GDP (PPP)
Pak:-2891$
Ind:-
3876$
BD:-1883$
GDP
Growth Rate (2009-13, CAGR)
Pak:-3.1%
Ind:-
7.0%
BD:- 6.2%
Poverty
1992
2010
Pak
30.6% 28.0% (WB estimates this as Govt has not
released fig since 2002)
Ind
45.0% 29.2%
BD
56.6% 31.0%
There are
many definitions. I am taking as per World Bank Site 1.25$ PPP Definition
So as
seen from these pts
1.
Pakistan's population is growing at an Alarming pace much faster than Ind or BD
(SL etc are even slower)
2.
Pakistan is not sending it's children to school while both Ind and BD are doing
a good job. This means though population is growing faster many more
illiterates are being added in Pak which is not the case in Ind.
3. The
GDP growth rates have not been growing to keep pace with population growth
4. Due to
good GDP growth rates Ind and BD have been able to lift huge population out of
poverty while Pakistan has been quite slow in the process
5.
Pakistan has the youngest population which is least literate and hence in the
worse position as compared to Ind and Pak to take advantage of the demographic
dividend.
6. If
population grows at the same pace it will put pressure on the land and it may
surpass BD in the density/arable land (In equivalent terms)
My
personal view is Pakistan is in a very critical situation and if something is
not done it will be too late. Another worrying point is that if I compare
Afghanistan with Pak on same numbers Afg is worse off. So Pak itself is in a
crisis situation and it may have to bear Afghanistan which can increase load on
it even earlier.
For the
numbers I have tried to use many sources to come on the least controversial
numbers. These include WB site, UNICEF site, Wikipedia.
